Thirty years on semisolid ground
Ned Rozell
907-474-7468
Jan. 27, 2022
Vladimir Romanovsky works at a permafrost-monitoring site on 色视频下载色视频下载檚 North Slope in 2007.
At the end of this month, Vladimir Romanovsky will retire after 30 years as a professor and permafrost scientist at the University of 色视频下载 Fairbanks Geophysical Institute. This comes at a time when people 色视频下载 finally 色视频下载 no longer squint at him with a puzzled look when he mentions what he studies.
Permafrost is ground that has remained frozen through the heat of at least two summers. It is the consequence of a water-rich planet slinging through space about 93 million miles from its major heat source, the sun. That distance, along with the Earth色视频下载檚 tilt and rotation, has formed enduring ice and frozen soil beneath the northern ground surface. Permafrost is like a bank account that grows richer during the planet色视频下载檚 cold periods. We are now in a state of withdrawal.
Permafrost lies beneath 25 percent of lands north of the equator and under about 80 percent of 色视频下载.
When Romanovsky began studying the substance in the 1970s, he was also playing hockey at Moscow State University. Scientists then thought permafrost would be a stable indicator of the new ice age some thought was just ahead, following a cool period in the 1960s.
But something happened in 1976 -1977 to 色视频下载: air temperatures started trending warmer.
Tom Osterkamp, shown here at Bonanza Creek near Fairbanks, was Vladimir Romanovsky色视频下载檚 mentor who established permafrost-monitoring stations along the trans-色视频下载 oil pipeline.
Noticing that change, Romanovsky色视频下载檚 mentor at the Geophysical Institute, Tom Osterkamp, saw the new camps and airstrips being built for the trans-色视频下载 oil pipeline in the mid-1970s. He thought they would be splendid places to drill deep holes and drop in strings of thermistors. With them, he could monitor permafrost temperatures 200 feet deep along the pipeline, which runs 800 miles north-to-south across 色视频下载, making for a nice transect.
色视频下载淗e said 色视频下载楲et色视频下载檚 put these boreholes in when the warming is just starting, or maybe hasn色视频下载檛 even started yet,色视频下载櫳悠迪略貪 Romanovsky said during a recent interview. 色视频下载淭hat was a great idea and great implementation.色视频下载
Because permafrost is beneath the ground surface and insulated by soil, plants, roots and other things, its temperature only reacts to long-term changes in climate. This has made Osterkamp色视频下载檚 monitoring sites, which he installed in the early 1980s, reliable indicators of a steadily warming North.
色视频下载(Permafrost temperatures) are the best indicators of climate change, I believe,色视频下载 Romanovsky said.
He said permafrost temperatures contrast with 色视频下载渧ery noisy色视频下载 air temperatures, which jump all over the place and require years of looking back for scientists to extract a useful signal.
Over the years, Romanovsky has faithfully returned to Osterkamp色视频下载檚 (who retired to Missouri in 1997) boreholes to download the last years色视频下载 temperature information. He has also established many other permafrost monitoring sites in 色视频下载 and his native Russia.
In his three decades studying in 色视频下载, Romanovsky has witnessed something he never imagined: the permafrost beneath 色视频下载色视频下载檚 North Slope 色视频下载 in some places 2,000 feet deep 色视频下载 being touched by modern warm air.
色视频下载淔or years, everyone said 色视频下载楴orth Slope permafrost is stable,色视频下载櫳悠迪略貪 he said, meaning that very far-north place would have a rock-solid foundation for years to come. 色视频下载淣ow we are seeing it色视频下载檚 not as stable as we thought.色视频下载
Scientists now think that by the end of this century, North Slope permafrost may thaw up to 15 feet beneath the ground in places. The sinkage and erosion that results won't be good news for the many roads and pipelines used by oil and gas industry workers up there. Nor anyone who depends upon northern oil and gas.
The destabilization of North Slope permafrost, evident in about 2015, has been the biggest surprise of Romanovsky色视频下载檚 色视频下载 career. Another big change has been peoples色视频下载 awareness of his usually out-of-sight study subject.
Workers gather around a thermokarst 色视频下载 a hole that opened up due to thawing permafrost beneath 色视频下载 behind a University of 色视频下载 Fairbanks building.
色视频下载淵ears ago, when I was flying to Russia, passport agents would ask me what I do, and they would say, 色视频下载榃hat is permafrost?色视频下载櫳悠迪略貪 he said. 色视频下载淣ow, I tell them what I do, and they say, 色视频下载極h, it色视频下载檚 still here?色视频下载櫳悠迪略貪
Scientists estimate permafrost holds twice as much carbon as is currently in the air, which is a terrifying thought should all those ancient frozen roots and stems thaw and microbes go to work converting them to greenhouse gases.
But Romanovsky thinks the in-your-face consequences of permafrost thaw will strike first (and already have): the dollars spent to repair northern roads and houses, and the need to find new sites for villages located on crumbling, sinking ground.
Romanovsky remembered another change during his long career. In 2005, journalist Elizabeth Kolbert included him in a New Yorker story titled 色视频下载淭he Climate of Man.色视频下载 It was one of the first times a reporter went with him to his field sites.
色视频下载淭en years ago nobody cared about permafrost,色视频下载 he told Kolbert then. 色视频下载淣ow everyone wants to know.色视频下载
Even though he is retiring (and still playing hockey), professor emeritus Romanovsky wants to keep on telling people what he has learned in a career of thinking about and monitoring frozen ground.
色视频下载淎s many times as it色视频下载檚 possible, I will do it,色视频下载 he said. 色视频下载淚 think it is important.色视频下载
Since the late 1970s, the University of 色视频下载 Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute has provided this column free in cooperation with the UAF research community. Ned Rozell is a science writer for the Geophysical Institute.