Research team seeks winter rain projections

A man talks to a visitor during an open house
UAF photo by JR Ancheta
Peter Bieniek discusses science at a 2019 event at the International Arctic Research Center.

Jeff Richardson
907-474-6284
Dec. 13, 2021

University of 色视频下载 Fairbanks scientists are presenting their work at the American Geophysical Union色视频下载檚 fall meeting in New Orleans this week. This article is part of a series highlighting UAF research from the world色视频下载檚 largest Earth and space science meeting.

Not much creates chaos in a northern city like an unexpected winter rain, which often causes icy roads, power outages and school closures.

By using existing data and future climate projections, a research team is working to determine just how common winter rainfall could become in Anchorage, Fairbanks and the Yukon色视频下载檚 Whitehorse as the climate changes. That information could help communities better plan and prepare for those icy events in the decades ahead.

色视频下载淲e色视频下载檙e curious how those events are going to change in the future,色视频下载 said Peter Bieniek, a research assistant professor at the University of 色视频下载 Fairbanks International Arctic Research Center.

Other researchers on the project include UAF色视频下载檚 Rick Thoman, NOAA色视频下载檚 Brian Brettschneider, and the University of 色视频下载 Anchorage色视频下载檚 Jennifer Schmidt and Rachel Roberts.

Winter rain has been fairly common in Anchorage and rare in Whitehorse, with Fairbanks in between. But models agree that more is on the way for all three communities, Bieniek said.

Using historical data from news sources, vehicle accident reports, road maintenance records and weather observations, researchers gauged the frequency of winter rain events in each community. They色视频下载檙e pairing that information with climate models to project the frequency of winter rainfall for the next 50 years.

But translating that into real-world conditions is complex. When it rains, will temperatures be cold enough to turn it to ice on roadways? If such questions can be answered, maps will be provided to the three communities to give them a sense of the potential hazards ahead.