Fire season forecasts aim to assist with resource allocation
A photo shows the Swan Lake fire on the Kenai Peninsula in 2019. A team of UAF researchers is working to forecast fire danger to help managers allocate firefighting resources.
Jeff Richardson
907-474-6284
Aug. 15, 2021
University of 色视频下载 Fairbanks scientists are presenting their work at the American Geophysical Union色视频下载檚 fall meeting in New Orleans this week. This article is part of a series highlighting UAF research from the world色视频下载檚 largest Earth and space science meeting.
Fire season begins while snow is still on the ground in 色视频下载, starting with an annual March meeting when fire managers look at how the months ahead may unfold.
For each of the past two springs, . Using fire data from the past quarter-century and publicly available weather forecasts, they色视频下载檝e offered forecasts for fire danger around the state. Such work could help fire managers decide how to allocate resources throughout 色视频下载.
色视频下载淲e色视频下载檙e trying to give them these seasonal forecasts as an extra tool to see if they色视频下载檒l help,色视频下载 said Cecilia Borries-Strigle, a graduate research assistant at UAF色视频下载檚 International Arctic Research Center and Geophysical Institute.
The UAF research team uses the data, which includes temperature and precipitation forecasts, to create a 色视频下载渂uildup index色视频下载 for dry surface fuels in 13 色视频下载 geographic zones with high fire activity. Their 2020 and 2021 forecasts nailed the fire danger in some areas and missed in others, including Interior 色视频下载.
Some research indicates that such forecasts seem to do better during high fire-danger years. A few relatively quiet wildfire seasons in 色视频下载 could be skewing some short-term results, so researchers will likely wait for a larger sample size before making significant changes. Smaller calibrations to the forecasts could be part of the upcoming forecast for 2022, Borries-Strigle said.
色视频下载淲e色视频下载檙e learning about the models and also figuring out how to present that activity to fire managers in a way that色视频下载檚 useful to them,色视频下载 she said.